The FTSE currently indicates a flat open, as yet again traders will be looking towards the US economy for guidance of the equity market. Today the US department of commerce will be releasing the US 2nd quarter GDP numbers. Economists are expecting a growth of 1%. If the numbers stay positive, this will be a clear indication that the economy is on the verge of recovery.

Oil has been benefiting from the hurricane season.  As the black gold has gained 3 dollars in the last week since the news that hurricane Gustav has forced New Orleans to start making evacuation plans. If the GDP number comes out better then expected, look for the price of oil to spike north of 120 dollars per barrel.

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Market are on hurricane watch as tropical storm Gustav heads for Louisiana. Oil is currently approaching $117 and energy stocks are providing leadership. Fortunately, a better than expected durable goods report and dovish commentary by the FOMC member,  Lockhart have helped offset the hurricane concerns and markets are currently showing modest gains. In the UK, despite the dramatic headlines, house builder Taylor Wimpey is down only slightly on yesterday’s close. The huge write down on the value of its land bank was largely expected for once, the write down wasn’t worse than expected. Volume is still light and many traders are keeping their powder dry as they await the full impact of the Storm approaching the South East US coastline.

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European markets opened on the back foot, this morning due to the sustained sell off on Wall Street last night. The FTSE has struggled to catch up after the Bank Holiday day off and judging by the volume of today’s trading activity, many traders may have taken the chance for an extended holiday.
 
 US markets are mildly positive after better than expected new home sales data. The S&P Case-Schiller house price index fell less than expected for the second quarter, but indicates that US house prices are still down 15.9% year on year. On a more positive note, housing futures based on the Case-Schiller index bottomed at the end of June and have been rising since. Expectations are for lower levels still, but the these levels are now thought to be better than those predicted a few months ago. However, it is too early to say for sure that this heralds the start of the start of the much vaunted turnaround in US house prices. Interest-rate futures are currently implying that banks are again becoming hesitant to lend to each other on fears that credit losses will increase as the feared global recession kicks in. Increased lending rates will hardly be manna from heaven for home owners on either side of the Atlantic.

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Markets are on edge with both bulls and bears frustrated and unwilling to take on big positions. There are two big unknowns, the first is the continuing political crisis between Russia and NATO countries. The focus has now shifted from Georgia to the proposed missile defence battery to be located in Poland. The longer this goes on without constructive dialogue from either party, the more nervous investors become. As testament to investors growing unease, oil prices have finally started to move higher, a significant development considering the recent ambivalence seen in crude prices. Russia is vying with Saudia Arabia to become the worlds top oil producer.   
 
 Secondly, the specifics of the expected US government bailout of the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still unknown. With billions, potentially trillions at stake for the US government and US tax payers, equity and bond traders alike are wary of taking on large positions. Financials are therefore underperforming again today, while gold and oil bounce back from their recent dips.   

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The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening as traders await the release of the UK retail sales numbers. While economists are expecting a contraction of 0.2%, traders are hedging in case the numbers come out worse then expected. Should this happen, the FTSE could open 1% lower.

Gold is in recovery mode as the strength of the US dollar wanes. Gold is now trading above the 820 dollar per ounce mark, and is poised to go higher. Oil had a very interesting day; after bearish inventory data, which saw crude oil fall below the 114 dollar mark, the black gold recovered and coupled with the weakness of the US equities market, finished the day above the 116 dollar per barrel mark. We expect oil to follow the US dollar, if the dollar weakens then look for oil to test 120 dollar level.

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